How will the market change?

[Alan H]

Well, I've been interacting on this forum for almost 7 years now, and "way back then" we were all just so sure that "kilts" were going to be the Big Thing and that all kinds of guys were going to be wearing them, and Carhart and Levi Strauss would be marketing kilts, yadda yadda yadda. The thought was that they'd soon be made offshore by cheap labor and the price would come down to very roughly what a pair of pants costs.

Hasnt' happened. The contemporary kilt market remains dominated by the Utilikilt, and it seems to be that the "fashion buzz" of "kilts" has kind of come and gone. I see no more kilts around campus here on The Farm than I ever did...which is for all intents and purposes, none. It's been a *very* long time since I've seen another kilt downtown.

With that in mind, I'm making some "statements" which can be up for discussion. I'm interested in what you all think.

1.) The contemporary kilt market is dominated by Utilikilt, and the entire rest of the contemporary market is made up of cottage industry or small businesses which employ at most, about 4-5 people.

My prediction:

2.) Within 5 years, Utilikilt will have tried to go "public"...meaning finding an outside buyer/investor or selling public stock. To cut costs, cut the price to the consumer and increase the profit margin, they will offshore their production. The price of their kilts will in fact come down, in fact WAY down, but essentially no more people will buy them, than have already done so, and the company will either fold or go back to being a small business employing <10 people.

The rest of the contemporary kilt market will be made up of other small businesses spread around the country, doing approximately the same amount of work that they're doing now.


When I mean contemporary kilt, I mean non-tartan models like Utilikilts, Amerikilts, R-Kilts, Freedom kilts (non-tartan models) , the X Kilt, NeoKilt and so on. I do NOT mean kilts which are not completely traditionally constructed, but which probably appear to be "Scottish" to the average, casual observer....like USA Kilt (casual and semi-traditional models).

A side comment....what's interesting to me is that I see so few sportkilt contemporary models. While I'm not wild about the basic Sportkilt for anything but heavy athletics at the Games and for hiking, I have to say that their camouflage models aren't bad. They're nowhere in the same league as an R Kilt or a Freedom Kilt, but they're not bad. I'd wear one. However, I essentially *Never* see them, even at the Games or at Ren Faire, where lots of guys who are too scared to wear a kilt any other time, will drag them out.

[Tobus]

Great topic! I've often wondered the same thing about where the contemporary kilt market is going.

I absolutely agree that Utilikilts dominates this market in the US. They pretty much brought the concept to the public, and when most people think of a contemporary non-Scottish kilt, they think of the Utilikilt. That company has done an excellent job of marketing their image and creating a social concept for their product. But I do think their growth potential is severely hampered by the ungodly price of their product and their corporate unwillingness to be flexible on options.

Honestly, I get the impression from them that they don't want to grow. That's how they come across to customers like me. They're very friendly and eager, as long as you're willing to buy a standard product and make it easy on them. But if you want a Workman, for example, in a fabric colour other than what they show (even though it's a fabric they offer on other models), they will flat-out tell you no. That's what they told me when I asked if I could get a Workman in 'coyote' with black snaps instead of nickel. They didn't say, "sure, we'll do it for an extra charge". They just said no. In fact, they have a whole explanation on their site as to why they won't do anything custom. They claim it isn't worth it. So... they haven't gotten any more of my business. They have a lot to learn about customer relations and the custom nature of the kilt market. They're trying to make this a standard product like blue jeans, and the market doesn't want that.

I don't see them going overseas for manufacturing. They are proud of making their product in the US. Going overseas would kill their image. The only reason they'd do that is out of desperation, if someone else really cuts into their market share by using Asian labour. And that doesn't seem to have happened yet. I also don't see them going public as a company. Not with their sluggish growth. They'd have to do a lot of positioning for such a thing, and they just aren't doing that.

So where do I see the market going? I dunno. I think it will remain fairly stagnant for the next 5 years at least, with perhaps some minimal growth. But at some point, as fashion trends change amongst the general public and the younger generation gains more traction in the adult world, modern kilts will eventually become more common. I don't see it being a fashion explosion, but more of a gradual trend. But, you never know. The right celebrity in the right place could set off a frenzy. Stranger things have happened!

I've seen other companies selling their modern kilts at Highland Games, but they don't get much business. That's probably the wrong place to try to sell non-Scottish kilts. It's funny, though, that the location has a lot to do with it. Here in San Antonio, modern kilts aren't seen very much. But when I go to the Celtic Festival in Austin (a historically 'progressive' town), modern kilts are the vast majority. It's mainly the younger 'alternative' crowd that's wearing them.

[mookien]

Alan: Part of your observations could be explained (in the USA) by the burst of the housing bubble in 2006 followed by the continuing deep recession. Folks whose houses have been foreclosed, or are underwater, or are un(der)-employed are not apt to spend a lot of time and money on fashion trends of any kind. This phenomenon is only exacerbated amongst the younger generation from whom fashion trends often arise.

John

[Panache]

Alan,

My perception, as someone who walks all the booths at the games and often chats with the vendors, is that the modern/contemporary kilt has been assimilated into the inventories of most mass produced kilt vendors and even custom kilt makers like William Glen and Son will have a version on hand. They aren't a big deal fashion wise anymore, they are a niche item that most kilt vendors have seen as worth carrying but not going too deep with for inventory. Contemporary/modern kilts appeal to non traditional kilt wearers for their comfort and unique look as well as traditional kilt wearers who like a "jeans" option. The group of kilted traditionalists that are outraged at Utilikilts and such in the United States are growing smaller.

In a nutshell, Contemporary/Modern kilts just didn't make the big time, but they didn't fade out either. They found a little fashion niche in the corner of the larger kilt industry.

As for Utilikilts, though they have the most name brand recognition, I suspect they might be running into some serious problems in the near future. With a good number of cheaper options for mass produced imported "utility" kilts available they find their marketshare shrinking on the low priced spectrum end, and with companies like R Kilts and such that make true custom utility kilts for not much more than what they charge for their standard products they find themselves losing their marketshare on the high end as well.

So I do agree that to remain competitive they will likely import in the future to stay competitive.

Cheers

Jamie

[McElmurry]

With the DIYers putting out such nice kilts it has got to be eating into the Utilikilt style market. We see at least a post a week of a new X-kilt. I know several people who have purchased Utilikilts at a festival, fair, or games and the kilts are hanging in their closet. I think there is a “been there done that effect” with that style of kilt.

Also, it takes no commitment to buy a Utilikilt. If you have put some serious thought into selecting a tartan or are now on your third X-kilt you have some personal commitment to the lifestyle. You look for opportunities to wear your kilt and are more likely to make or acquire more kilts.

I will also propose kilt wearing is a young mans and middle age/retired man’s phenomenon with less action in the 25 to 45 age group where folks are concentrating on careers and families. So Utilikilt owners may go dormant for 20 years or so instead of buying a new kilt every few years.

Just a few thoughts, generalizations all.

[Alan H]

I well remember my sticker shock when, eight years ago, I walked into a Utilikilts booth after seeing Mike McMullen of Tempest, wearing one on stage. At the time I thought..."I don't know about those plaid things, but I could wear a black kilt like Mike's". Then I saw the price. It was my reaction to that price that sent me hunting online to less expensive alternatives, and that, actually is when I joined X Marks.

$175 is not an unreasonable price for the work that goes into making a "production" contemporary kilt, made in the USA. But as we've all noted a million times, until the price gets down to something vaguely comparable to a pair of casual pants, a whole, whole lot of guys will never buy one. To do that, the economies of scale come into play. The company has to buy hundreds to thousands of bolts of material from China and have it sewn up by the tens of thousands in a third world country, for the end product to land on a shelf in the USA at $50.

Marketing studies and clothing trends have to prove to a potential company that they can make money on this. Who are the possible companies? Dickies...Carhart... Columbia...Patagonia... North Face....companies like that. It's been 7-8 years and nobody has made the move. At this point, I don't think that any company WILL make the move.

Chicken and egg, eh?

I looked into buying a couple of bolts of cloth from China and having kilts made in El Salvador a few years ago. Upshot was, with the scale of *hundreds* of units that I might have done, not *tens of thousands* I couldn't significantly beat UK's prices. I was pretty thorough in my research, too. I'm not Patagonia,and neither is Utilikilt. So.... Here's my guess.

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

I used to think that McElmurrys idea, that DIY was such a tiny drop it the bucket that it had no effect. I'm slowly changing my mind. The other day I did a google search on "X-Kilt" (I've done this before) and I'm astounded at how many sites have links to the manual. I'm starting to think that the number of X Kilts made by people NOT on X Marks significantly outnumbers the ones from X Marks. The last time I added it up, about 3+ years ago, over 200 X Kilts had been made by X Markers. That number is probably up to 350 or more, now. I'm guessing that triple that number have been made by people who never visited X Marks for any reason but to find the link. That's 1,000+ kilts.

Whoah. Believe me, when I wrote the manual I had NO idea this was going to happen. Also, that's just X Kilts. How about the umpty-ump other, non-X-kilt DIY kilts that have been made?

But here's the thing....even with the X kilt, that's more or less, vaguely 1,000+ kilts that Utilikilt didn't sell in the past 5 years. That's no joke. So in fact I think that maybe McElmurry might be right, that the DIY market for kilts has impacted the overall market, because the overall market is so small. You can be flippin' sure that the overwhelming majority of the people who made kilts would never in a million years attempt to make a pair of pants.

[Alan H]

Another thought....

I suspect that the number of "new" kilt wearers for the contemporary product is going to seriously shrink. That means that most customers will be repeat customers. The days of some guy finding a booth at a street fair, dropping his trousers and walking out with a Utilikilt.....which then will hang in his closet until next year when he goes to the same street fair.....is fading fast. The novelty is wearing off, the "fashion buzz" is over and the flippin' things cost a lot. As we've already seen, there aren't a whole lot of significantly less expensive alternatives, outside the "tartan" market....and a lot of guys won't wear "tartan".

Two things will happen....

1.)those people who really love kilts will discover that paying more for a custom job from R Kilts or Freedom Kilts is totally worth the money, and will go that way.

2.) Utilikilts are pretty well made-products. They don't fall apart. That's one reason why they cost so much. But that also means that an awful lot of their customers don't buy more than one or two. I suspect that the OVERWHELMING majority of UK owners are once-a-year-at-the-fair wearers, and the rest of the time, they stay in the closet. So in addition to sales to "new" customers, sales to "repeat" customers, to replace worn-out kilts will be minimal.

And that leaves them in a bind. If you make a quality product, people like it and are happy with it and they don't buy another one. This is why Microsoft introduces a new Operating System every four years. They NEED you to buy it, to stay in business.

[Tobus]

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

Oh no?

[James Hood]

Fascinating thread, thank you for your contributions.

In this observation, the last truly enormous "clothing revolution" was when blue cotton denim farm-ranch trousers went from hipster-punk (James Dean and Marlon Brando in 1955) to Hippie (with bell bottoms in 1969) to today's nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear.

Do kilts "have what it takes" to make even a tiny fraction of that progression? Again in this opinion, they are seen by the vast lowing hordes as (tartan) ethnic-Scottish and pipe band and at very best, rare (modern, not prolific) "rebellious youth" garb.

Some places, such as Chicago are hideously-dreadfullydespicably traditional in clothing. Given the millions upon millions upon millions huge population of this vast megopolis, one might expect to see...and be disappointed by not...more diversity in dress.

[frank_a]

I think John here is right, at least as it is for us. The economic downturn has stifled wages and led to less discretionary spending on our part, and I think the economy has treated a lot of people even more severely. That was basically the genesis of a thread I started a week or so ago about the expense of kilts. My thing is heritage though, as much as just doing something different. I do expect to be getting (or using Alan's plans to make) a utility kind of kilt simply because of XMarks. By the way, I'm in my $89 "special" kilt as I type this!

Frank

Alan: Part of your observations could be explained (in the USA) by the burst of the housing bubble in 2006 followed by the continuing deep recession. Folks whose houses have been foreclosed, or are underwater, or are un(der)-employed are not apt to spend a lot of time and money on fashion trends of any kind. This phenomenon is only exacerbated amongst the younger generation from whom fashion trends often arise.

John