The size of the tie has nothing to do with the collar (other than making sure that the width of the back of the tie won't ride over the band of the collar if wearing a wing collar). Rather, the size of the tie is dependent on two things: 1) fashion and 2) your face. If you are very jowly avoid a thin tie, it will accentuate your jowls. If you have a long, thin face avoid a very thin tie as it will make you look like Ichabod Crane. Looking at your photos, either the 1 1/2 inch tie or the 2 1/2 inch tie will work, although I would suggest going with the 2 1/2 tie as it will work better with the formal look of your jacket. Save the 1 1/2 inch ties for day wear.